The Case for Social Security Personal Accounts

Posted by Daniel J. Mitchell

There are two crises facing Social Security. First the program has a gigantic unfunded liability, largely caused by demographics. Second, the program is a very bad deal for younger workers, making them pay record amounts of tax in exchange for comparatively meager benefits. This video explains how personal accounts can solve both problems, and also notes that nations as varied as Australia, Chile, Sweden, and Hong Kong have implemented this pro-growth reform.

Social Security reform received a good bit of attention in the past two decades. President Clinton openly flirted with the idea, and President Bush explicitly endorsed the concept. But it has faded from the public square in recent years. But this may be about to change. Personal accounts are part of Congressman Paul Ryan’s Roadmap proposal, and recent polls show continued strong support for letting younger workers shift some of their payroll taxes to individual accounts.

Equally important, the American people understand that Social Security’s finances are unsustainable. They may not know specific numbers, but they know politicians have created a house of cards, which is why jokes about the system are so easily understandable.

President Obama thinks the answer is higher taxes, which is hardly a surprise. But making people pay more is hardly an attractive option, unless you’re the type of person who thinks it’s okay to give people a hamburger and charge them for a steak.

Other nations have figured out the right approach. Australia began to implement personal accounts back in the mid-1980s, and the results have been remarkable. The government’s finances are stronger. National saving has increased. But most important, people now can look forward to a safer and more secure retirement. Another great example is Chile, which set up personal accounts in the early 1980s. This interview with Jose Pinera, who designed the Chilean system, is a great summary of why personal accounts are necessary. All told, about 30 nations around the world have set up some form of personal accounts. Even Sweden, which the left usually wants to mimic, has partially privatized its Social Security system.

It also should be noted that personal accounts would be good for growth and competitiveness. Reforming a tax-and-transfer entitlement scheme into a system of private savings will boost jobs by lowering the marginal tax rate on work. Personal accounts also will boost private savings. And Social Security reform will reduce the long-run burden of government spending, something that is desperately needed if we want to avoid the kind of fiscal crisis that is afflicting European welfare states such as Greece.

Last but not least, it is important to understand that personal retirement accounts are not a free lunch. Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, so if we let younger workers shift their payroll taxes to individual accounts, that means the money won’t be there to pay benefits to current retirees. Fulfilling the government’s promise to those retirees, as well as to older workers who wouldn’t have time to benefit from the new system, will require a lot of money over the next couple of decades, probably more than $5 trillion.

That’s a shocking number, but it’s important to remember that it would be even more expensive to bail out the current system. As I explain at the conclusion of the video, we’re in a deep hole, but it will be easier to climb out if we implement real reform.

Facebook has dominated the headlines today with the news that it has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and Digital Sky Technologies at a $50 billion valuation.

In addition, the social network intends to raise another $1.5 billion through a “special purpose vehicle” that Goldman Sachs will be setting up to allow some of its clients to indirectly invest in class='blippr-nobr'>Facebookclass="blippr-nobr">Facebook.

There have been a lot of questions about the Goldman Sachs “special purpose vehicle” since the news broke. The key questions: Why is Facebook choosing to raise more money through Goldman Sachs? Will the SEC allow this move, or will it force Facebook to start disclosing its financial results to the public? And when will Facebook finally have an IPO?

SEC regulations and the nuances of private investment are complicated subjects, so we thought we’d try to clarify some of the issues surrounding the Facebook-Goldman Sachs deal, including figuring out the likely date of the Facebook IPO.

1. Why Are Facebook and Goldman Sachs Creating a “Special Purpose Vehicle”?

There is an SEC regulation, set by The Securities Exchange Act of 1934, that requires companies with 500 or more shareholders to disclose their earnings to the SEC. The SEC then publishes this financial information, making it public knowledge.

Facebook doesn’t want that headache at all. It doesn’t want to go through the audits, create the reports, or let its competitors know the details of its earnings and expenditures. However, the social network still wants $2 billion in fresh resources, so Goldman Sachs has come up with a very clever workaround; instead of having thousands of individual investors, Goldman Sachs will represent them all and invest on their behalf.

This is essentially what most brokers do on behalf of their clients, the shareholders. Instead of making a person an investor of record in class='blippr-nobr'>Googleclass="blippr-nobr">Google, Goldman Sachs will invest money on that individual’s behalf, making him or her a benefitting investor

The New York Times‘ Steven Davidoff provides a stellar overview of the SEC regulations in question, but it essentially boils down to this: Goldman Sachs is helping Facebook circumvent the system so it doesn’t have to report earnings or raise money via an IPO.

2. Will the SEC Allow It?

The SEC isn’t stupid; it knew that brokerage firms would try these types of workarounds. The New York Times dug up the SEC’s definition of a record holder, which includes a provision that says if a company creates a vessel for holding securities of record primarily to circumvent The 1934 Securities Exchange Act, then it will deem beneficial owners as record owners.

In other words, the SEC could deem that Goldman Sachs is circumventing its regulations with its “special purpose vehicle” and thus consider all of the investors within it “record owners” of Facebook. That would mean that the social network would be required to report its earnings.

We think it’s likely that the SEC will intervene. The SEC is already investigating the private secondary markets for potentially violating the same 500 shareholder regulation. It wouldn’t be much of a jump for the SEC to tell Facebook that its investment vehicle doesn’t preclude it from publicly disclosing its financial information. In fact, it’s likely to tell Facebook the opposite.

3. So, When Will Facebook IPO?

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Facebook and Goldman Sachs are setting up this “special purpose vehicle” to raise a ton of cash for the social networking company. They’re absolutely aware that the SEC will not be happy with their arrangement, and they also know that the SEC will likely step in and tell Facebook to disclose its earnings to the public due to the existence of the Goldman Sachs vehicle.

So why would Facebook go through all this trouble when the SEC is going to shoot them down anyway?

The answer is that this move buys Facebook more time to grow and prepare itself for an IPO. The SEC regulation wouldn’t take effect until May 2012 because the SEC only requires private companies to start reporting its financial information within four months after the end of its current fiscal year. So if Facebook violates the 500 shareholder rule this year, then it won’t have to start reporting its earnings until May 2012, 120 days after December 31, 2011.

That’s more than enough time for Facebook to prepare for its IPO. When the day comes that Facebook is required to release its financial information to the public, it will probably decide to just go all-in and become a public company, raising even more money in the process.

Essentially, Facebook has set the clock for its IPO to occur on May 2012 or earlier. Part of the reason we predicted no Facebook IPO in 2011 is because 2012 is the year most of our sources say the Facebook IPO is likely to occur. It all fits.

Mark your calendars and set your watches, everyone: The Facebook IPO is likely coming in 12 to 16 months.

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Monday, January 10, 2011

Making Money System

The Case for Social Security Personal Accounts

1. Why Are Facebook and Goldman Sachs Creating a “Special Purpose Vehicle”?

2. Will the SEC Allow It?

3. So, When Will Facebook IPO?

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